The Offer Was Signed. The Start Date Was Set. Then the Counteroffer Landed: How to Stop Placements From Dying in the Final Mile

I can tell you the exact date I stopped celebrating accepted offers.

It was a Thursday in November. I’d been working a senior DevOps engineer req for nine weeks — the kind of role where the client’s hiring bar was so specific that I burned through 83 candidate profiles before I found someone who matched. The candidate was outstanding. Six years managing Kubernetes clusters at scale, AWS certified, strong communicator, and — crucially — already unhappy with their current employer’s return-to-office mandate. Motivation to move was clear and personal. We ran two technical rounds and a culture fit interview. The client extended an offer at $145,000 plus equity. The candidate accepted on the spot. I heard the relief in their voice. “Rachel, this is exactly what I needed.”

I sent the confirmation email. I updated Bullhorn. I told the client we were done. I moved on to my next req.

Eight days later, the candidate called me. Their voice was different — careful, rehearsed. “Rachel, I need to let you know that I’ve decided to stay with my current company. They’ve matched the salary and offered me a remote-first arrangement. I’m really sorry.”

A $29,000 placement fee — 20% of $145,000 — gone. Nine weeks of sourcing, screening, coordinating, and negotiating, undone by one conversation with a manager who suddenly found budget that hadn’t existed the week before. My client was furious. I’d told them we were closed. Now I was back to square one with an empty pipeline and a hiring manager who questioned whether I had qualified the candidate’s motivation at all.

That was the third fall-off that quarter. Three placements. Three signed offer letters. Three candidates who accepted and never started. Combined fee loss: $71,000. That is not a bad quarter. That is a structural failure in how I was managing the most fragile phase of every placement.

The Offer-to-Start Gap Is Where Revenue Goes to Die

Here is the maths that keeps me up at night. Every placement in your pipeline has a cost attached to it — the hours of sourcing, screening calls, interview coordination, client management, and negotiation. By the time a candidate accepts an offer, you have invested the full cycle. You have spent 100% of the effort. A fall-off at this stage is not a partial loss. It is a total loss, plus the cost of restarting the search from scratch.

And the problem is getting worse. As notice periods stretch and start dates push further out, the offer-to-start window is widening. Three weeks is now standard for mid-level roles. Senior and executive placements regularly see four- to six-week gaps. Every additional day between “yes” and day one is another day for a counteroffer to land, for doubt to creep in, for a competing offer to arrive.

That number is conservative. It assumes your average fee is under $19,000 and your team closes only 40 offers a year. Scale up to a larger desk or higher-fee perm roles, and you are looking at a quarter of a million dollars walking out the door annually — not because you couldn’t find the candidate, not because the client didn’t want them, but because nobody was minding the gap between acceptance and arrival.

The Three Forces That Kill Placements After Acceptance

After analysing 94 fall-offs across three agencies I’ve consulted for, the causes cluster into three predictable categories. Each one has a specific trigger window and a specific intervention that prevents it.

Force 1: The Counteroffer (Days 2-10). This is the big one — responsible for roughly half of all fall-offs. The pattern is always the same. The candidate resigns. Their manager panics. Within 48 to 72 hours, a counteroffer materialises: a raise, a promotion, remote work, a new project, or some combination. The candidate, who was certain about leaving four days ago, is suddenly uncertain. Their current employer is saying all the right things. And your side? Silence. You celebrated the acceptance and moved on. You are not in the conversation when the counteroffer lands.

The critical window is days two through ten after acceptance. If you are not actively reinforcing the candidate’s decision to leave during this period, their current employer will be actively undermining it.

Force 2: Cold Feet and Buyer’s Remorse (Days 7-21). Even without a counteroffer, the act of changing jobs triggers genuine anxiety. Candidates start second-guessing themselves. Was the salary really enough? What if the new team culture is terrible? What if I hate the commute? These doubts are normal and manageable — but only if someone is there to address them. Left alone in the silence of the offer-to-start gap, small concerns metastasise into paralysing fear. The candidate convinces themselves that staying put is the safer choice.

This force accounts for about 30% of fall-offs. It is almost entirely preventable with structured engagement.

Force 3: The Competing Offer (Days 1-21). The candidate was interviewing with multiple companies. They accepted your offer first, but another process was still in flight. A week later, a second offer arrives — better title, higher salary, or a company they secretly preferred all along. Without any post-acceptance engagement from your side, switching to the new offer feels painless. They never really started the relationship with your client. The new role is still abstract.

This accounts for roughly 20% of fall-offs. It is the hardest to prevent entirely, but can be mitigated by making the accepted role feel tangible and real as quickly as possible.

The Counteroffer Conversation Most Recruiters Skip

Here is what I got wrong for years: I thought counteroffer prevention was about telling candidates that counteroffers are bad. Every recruiter has the speech. “Fifty percent of people who accept a counteroffer leave within twelve months. Your employer is just buying time to replace you. The reasons you wanted to leave haven’t changed.”

That speech is accurate and completely ineffective. You are giving a rational argument to a person making an emotional decision. When a candidate’s manager sits them down and says “We don’t want to lose you, what will it take?”, the candidate is not thinking about twelve-month retention statistics. They are thinking about the relief of not having to change everything.

The approach that actually works is different. During the interview process — not at the offer stage, during the process — have a specific conversation about counteroffers. Ask the candidate directly: “If your current employer offers you a raise and a new title to stay, will you take it?” Then listen carefully to the answer.

If they hesitate, probe deeper. Ask them to list the three things that are pushing them to leave. Write those reasons down. Get them to confirm them on email as part of your candidate notes. “Just to make sure I’m representing your situation accurately to the client: you mentioned that the lack of career progression, the return-to-office policy, and the leadership turnover are the main factors driving your decision. Is that right?”

Now, when the counteroffer lands on day four, you have something powerful: the candidate’s own words. “Sarah, I understand the counter is tempting. But when we spoke three weeks ago, you told me the three things driving you to leave were X, Y, and Z. Has the counter addressed any of those?” In almost every case, the counteroffer addresses only salary — and the candidate already told you that salary wasn’t the primary issue.

Making the New Role Feel Real Before Day One

The reason counteroffers and cold feet are so effective is that the new role is abstract. The candidate has never walked into the building. They have never met their team. They have never sat at their desk. The new job is a concept. Their current job is tangible, familiar, and safe.

Your job between acceptance and start date is to close that gap. Make the new role as real as possible, as fast as possible.

Day 1-2: The Welcome Pack. Work with the client to send the candidate something tangible. An email from their future manager saying “We’re excited to have you join the team.” A copy of the first-week schedule. Access to any pre-reading materials or onboarding documentation. The candidate should receive something from the employer’s side within 48 hours of acceptance. Not from you, the recruiter. From them, the employer. This shifts the candidate’s mental model from “I accepted a job offer” to “I’m joining a company that wants me.”

Day 5-7: The Team Connection. Arrange for the candidate to meet their future colleagues — even informally. A 15-minute video call. A team lunch invitation. An email introduction. The goal is to create a personal connection that makes withdrawing feel like letting people down, not just declining an abstract position.

Day 10-14: The Logistics Lock-In. Send the candidate every practical detail about their first day and first week. Parking instructions. Building access. IT setup timelines. The name of the person who will greet them at reception. When the candidate can picture themselves walking through the door, the new role stops being hypothetical.

Day 18-21 (or 3 days before start): The Confirmation Call. This is non-negotiable. Three days before the start date, the recruiter calls the candidate directly. Not an email. Not a text. A phone call. “Sarah, just confirming you’re all set for Monday. Is there anything you need from us?” If there’s hesitation in the voice, you have 72 hours to address it. If you find out via a no-show on Monday morning, you have nothing.

The System That Protects Every Placement

Fall-off prevention cannot depend on any individual recruiter remembering to make the right call at the right time. Recruiters are busy. They are juggling ten to twenty active candidates, managing client expectations, and sourcing for new reqs. The candidate who accepted last week is no longer the top priority — until they call to withdraw, and suddenly they are the only priority.

The system needs to run independently of recruiter workload. Every accepted offer should trigger a sequence that runs automatically, with human intervention only at the moments that require judgment.

Why Celebrating the Offer Is the Most Expensive Habit in Recruitment

Every agency I’ve worked with has the same ritual. A recruiter closes a placement, and the team celebrates. The billing amount goes on the whiteboard. The recruiter gets a high-five or a Slack message. Everyone moves on to the next deal.

But the placement is not closed. The placement is not revenue until the candidate starts. In many agencies, it is not even invoiced until the candidate completes their first week or first month. That whiteboard number is a forecast, not a fact. And treating it as a fact — mentally checking out of that placement the moment the offer is accepted — is what creates the gap that counteroffers, cold feet, and competing offers exploit.

The best-performing agencies I’ve seen treat the offer-to-start window as a distinct phase of the recruitment process with its own KPIs, its own workflows, and its own accountability. They track fall-off rates by recruiter, by client, by role level, and by the length of the offer-to-start gap. They know that a four-week notice period with a senior candidate is higher risk than a two-week notice period with a junior candidate, and they staff the engagement sequence accordingly.

They also know the financial leverage of fall-off prevention. Reducing your fall-off rate from 25% to 15% on 40 annual placements at $18,750 average fee is not a marginal improvement. That is $75,000 in recovered revenue — placements you already sourced, screened, and closed, now actually converting to billings.

You don’t need to find more candidates. You don’t need to win more reqs. You need to stop losing the placements you’ve already made.

The recruiter who lost that $29,000 DevOps placement in November was me. I didn’t lose it because I couldn’t find the candidate or because the client was difficult. I lost it because I went silent for eight days and gave a counteroffer the space to land unchallenged. The candidate’s manager offered remote work and a $10,000 raise, and I wasn’t in the room — or even in the candidate’s inbox — when the decision was being made.

That doesn’t happen anymore. Every accepted offer on my desk now triggers a structured four-phase engagement sequence. I know within 48 hours whether a counteroffer is in play. I know within a week whether the candidate is genuinely committed or hedging. And I have a phone call scheduled 72 hours before every start date, every time, no exceptions.

My fall-off rate dropped from 24% to 9% in two quarters. On my desk alone, that is five additional placements per year that convert to actual billings. Five placements I had already won but was previously losing in the final mile.

The offer is not the finish line. It is the starting gun for the most dangerous phase of the placement. Build the system that protects every deal between acceptance and arrival, and your billings will reflect work you’ve already done — instead of revenue that disappeared while you were celebrating.